In the four-month November to February period, the number of transfer tax returns fell 21.4% compared to the same time last year, while  transfer tax revenues fell 26.5% (see chart at right).

Most brokers say prices are holding steady, and one even said a market bottom has been reached, but some median prices are now declining. For example, the median price of a single-family primary home fell 2.6% compared to one year ago, and has fallen 6.6% compared to what may have been a peak in prices reached last summer.

Vacation condo prices are showing the most weakness. The median price of these properties is off 7.6% from a year ago, and down 11% since last summer. There were only 147 vacation condo sales in the Nov. ’07 to Feb. ’08 period, down 68% from the 462 sold in the same period three years ago.

The Vermont real estate slowdown has taken place against a backdrop of an even greater housing slump in much of the country. According to the Case-Schiller index of 20 large cities, home values in January of this year were 10.7% below January 2007. In Miami, housing values were off 19.3% over the past year.

The ongoing credit crunch on Wall Street, stock market gyrations, and talk of a recession are not helping consumer confidence. But brokers report there are still a decent number of potential buyers looking at Vermont properties, in both the primary and vacation home markets.

In the Mount Snow area, sales volume this winter was similar to a year ago, but “prices are starting to soften,” according to broker Mark Linton of Mark Linton Real Estate.  He recounted the story of one couple with a three-bedroom condo at Timber Creek that they recently decided to sell.

“They bought the condo in 2005 for $300,000, paid for improvements, and just sold it for $285,000, on the condition they replace the hot tub,” he said. “All told, they likely lost $40,000.”

On the other hand, Linton said, sellers who have owned for a longer time period can still do well, given the “incredible increase” in prices in recent years. “If you bought in 2005, you have a problem,” he said. “If you bought in 1998 or 2000, you’ve still got quite a cushion.”

Linton said inventory in his area is up a bit, and there are buyers actively looking at properties. Many are hoping to find an incredible deal, and a few are managing to do just that, he said. Buyer traffic was helped by the very strong ski season this past winter, he said.

Broker Jerry Little of Mountain Realty, which covers Stratton and nearby towns, said he saw somewhat fewer buyers this winter, but those that were looking were serious. He said there are increased opportunities for buyers due to the “substantially reduced prices from two years ago.”

In the Sugarbush area, prices have not dropped because they never rose as much as in some other resort areas, according to broker David Dion of David Dion Real Estate. But to sell, properties must have realistic asking prices, he noted.

Buyer demand has been good, which he says is probably due to a combination of favorable interest rates and the desire of some people, in this time of economic uncertainty, to “park some dollars as an investment in Vermont.”

Farther north, in the Burke area, the market this past winter was “okay,” said broker Annette Daley of the Peter Watson Agency. She said only two condos sold through MLS last year, and there are currently 22 Burke condos listed for sale with MLS.  Some new higher-end Bear Path condos, not listed through MLS, have sold, however, she said.

In Chittenden County, the inventory of single family homes on the market through MLS was 514 as of March 1, up 12% from 459 homes a year earlier, according to the office of broker Nancy Jenkins of Prudential Realty Mart.

Jenkins reported that she is seeing an increase in the number of showings and offers. “It looks like the bottom was hit in the fourth quarter of 2007,” she said. Prices in Chittenden County are expected to stay flat, however, appraiser Stephen Allen told the Burlington Free Press recently. Houses will become more affordable, he noted, if incomes rise slightly in the face of the flat home prices.

Broker Bill Murray with Berkley and Veller in the Brattleboro area also said the market seems to be showing some signs of picking up. “All the snow has slowed things down,” he said. “But I am starting to hear from more people now who want to sell, and the number of listings is increasing.”

In the Rutland area, inventory is up and prices are stable, according to Janet McCardle, a salesperson at C21 Premiere Properties. “Buyers are looking mostly at the lower end,” she said. “Higher end properties, priced over $350,000 are not moving, so those sellers are getting a little anxious.” 

McCardle’s firm works mostly with primary home sales, but operates in the Killington market, too. Right now, that market is “not so good,” she said. “There are a lot of condos for sale.”

In the Montpelier area, Lori Pinard of Century 21 Jack Associates said she has been keeping quite busy. Inventory is up, but is still much lower than 10 or 20 years ago, she noted. She said she has a collection of first-time homebuyers who are “nervous,” but who are tired of renting and want to buy.

The city of Montpelier is popular with those who wish to live in town and walk to work, she said, but there are not a lot of good-quality houses for sale. Some buyers desire country living, if it comes with privacy, quiet and high-speed internet, Pinard said. In all of Washington County, there are currently 331 homes for sale through MLS, at a median asking price of $239,000, she said. 

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